Call Warrant up date - 29/11/06

As per today most of the CA already reach their Fair value, special mention here :

1. Astro CA and Scomi CA is expiry onJan 2007, Avoid this 2 CA, Especially scomi CA is seriously out of money.

2. Sime CA , The premium is high 16% and the Sime current price already in the value that proposed restructure price by CIMB. Any outside prospect?

3. Maxis CA and May bank CA , still at reasoable price, if market is bullish, the 2 counter yet to show their history high. So se ethe potential?

3rd hopeless stock : Utusan and NSTP Merging

Why both, ? they are merging and share price is up! why they are hopeless? Hopeless stocks x 2 = hopeless stock also . Can change their fate and future.

NST once a time is top english newspaper especially in southern Johor, Especially weekend edision, they are lot of advertisement for johor and melacca, Today at saturday edition. Star sure will out of stock at petrol kiosk if you go late morning. But for NST will return at next day. Everybody reading stars! This can see the profitability and share price.

Utusan is very famous and independent paper in old time, Not only malay read it, those non malay which understand Bahasa also will brought it and read. After Umno take over. It lost the characterisitc of idependent. then the market share drop. Today even many malay in KL will interest to buy Metro or malaymail. Malay also not read it, how you see their future?

You may be can gain for the merging for short term,But how about long term. They are losing market share and the trend not easy be turn back.

Call Warrant update

When I look at this 2 day market, Everybody Chasing blue chip Call Warrant or warrant. As table show, most of the warrant already out of money. Market non stop moving when break 1,000. When is correction time. Beware my friend !!

Ranhil Utilities :1.71

Latest result of RU Berhad, Theprofit jump to RM58 m for Q3,(The profit is up trend if you compared) or equivalent 60 cent per share per annuam, PE will stand allow 3 . It is super undervalue? No!!! it carry high debt (similar like Megan). It still consider good opportunity to going at this price. Remember it is public utilities business and Monopoly business (SAJ). No matter how! goverment will protect this idle company also. Later the water Tarif may adjust (already happen in Selangor) to cover the high capital investment. Is good opprtunity to go in? Value yourself!!

Call Warrant Update

The above indicate
1. Yellow colour - Those premium below 10%


Why publish this table, Just Imagine that KLCI is up to 1030-1040, most of the blue chip are up to their valuation, May be the correction will impact of all this CA, becareful the convertion price and ratio. Just want to share that in my opinion MAXIS CA is the Call Warrant i think still fair to look at, The mother still pullish (Compared to DIGI already up to 13.00) and the CA convertion premium is reasoable.( See the table). Just want to remind some of the Call warrant valuation wide is no more cheap.

Top Stock Selection for Mesdaq

I do not know whether any one realised that quality of newly listed mesdaq counter show a better quality and performance compared to all mesdaq stock. I think Bursa are improving in selection listing unit and try improved the image for it.

Let us see some good example for quality Mesdaq company, The lists may not complete , But is my opinion.

1. Jobstreet
It is pioneer and successful online job hunter in region, now it expanse to few country and the information i get ,it is top lists selection for employee advertisement to day. The latest financial performance show revenue and profit still increasing. Only concern is the stock price almost relect it value.

2. Carotech
Already recommend in my previos posting, As i pioneer in bio diesel player in Malaysia and there is lot of advantage and unique of it industries. In foreaseable future it product may not easy be replace by other. Profit Margin may effected it the oil price droping and ram material costs increase. Any how, it is King of the day now.

3. Dgate
As name , it unique business modeling in gambling business make it name appear. Strong casino business in the asia and region will help Dgate remain positive outlook for the foreaseable future. It is top pick under mesdaq.

4. Notion,Scicom
Why I put this 2 company together, There are contract Manafactured for Camera and MMC company respectily. With outsourcing is the trend for entepriser, Foreseable future business prospect is high. Risk is the profit margin and highly depend on source vendor. This may create risk for future.
Notion just release it Q3 result, the revenue and profit continous up trend.


How about other good company such as M touch, Greepacket and other many highlyy potential counter. In malaysia contect. We are lack of skill and competitiness in those area. Some good out look company may will become unprofitable due to many reason. Any how buying mesdaq is buying something future. Remember future is unpredictable. so only put small money in it. Just buying a hope !!!

CAROTECH MOVING

It really move, The reason why it suddenly so hot. I conclude following few reason

1. Market is so hot, still looking counter like Carotech to move, (good potential n good management)

2. Khazanah Factor, Many of us just notice from recent annocement, Khazanah is substantial shareholder of Carotech, This is unusual for khazanah invest in Mesdaq, in small Cap and business running by non malay. I think is strategy holding to protect country interest. Since Carotech is only listed unit for bio diesel.

3. Speculator or punter.

I believe this is just a start for this stocks, and remember it suitable for long term investment. Not Short term investor appetive.

Carotech update : 15 Nov 2006

From the annoucement yesterday, saw a large transaction of stock between Commerse Assets and khazanah, look is acquistion and suprising to see Khazah willing to invest in Mesdaq. I believe due to the bio diesel and the company capacity will be expanse another 3 folks soon.

The financial result of it no need further discuss for industries which is high grow and bright prospect. PE now is substantially high, I think market already capitalised some of the prospect in the company future. Now waiting for it materialised next year.
If answer is "YES" ! It share price may jump to another peak soon.

Now waiting for their Quarter annocement, if result is favauable, I think will attract some buying interests. other wise will see it crystalised next year. for long term prospect, unless it changing in management style. LONG TERM return is expected. Many bio diesel license granted to malaysia company. But How many of them start doing it? a lot of barrier of entry to go , before product really can go to eksport market. Carotech is at the movement with steady exsport market and customers and be one of the famous "Brand" in the market. So do you think is good prospect??

Bursa index break 1000. carotech still hang for 86 cent. when is you turn! Carotech

nexttrade: Mieco- a turnaround story in the making

nexttrade: Mieco- a turnaround story in the making

Don't put money in Warrant !

Recently when bursa break 1000! Many newspaper or broker film all said buy warrant. Whether call warrant or warrant issued by company itself, they still warrant. I remember old time, when I in one forum , the forumer (all think themselves is fundamental player (FA). We all buying warrant, whether blue chip or other counter which S&P and many analysts favour counter. when time pass. Most of the forumer be burning and the forum is end and no more active.

Just an reminder in bull market. Limitation and risk involved in buying warrant. Unless you are gambler (or Technical view). Then you can take the risk of warrant.

Warrant is bull market tools to win big money, This can said alrite for gambler or TA. But Warrant Buffet won't buy warrant. why. there are limitation for warrant.

1. Time frame and expired dated. I still remember few year back if you holding a Gamuda wb and Gamuda wc. pricing from 3 dollar to 2 dollar. Today they are in 20 cent and 90 cent respectively, Even the mother are recover from lower 3 dollar to 4.5 dollar. Why ?? this is high risk instructment. not sultable for small investor. I will recommend you bet the KLCI future for betting up or down rather than in Warrant.

2. Due to limitation of quantitiy in market, Warrant easily be use by speculater to win fast money (Big fish). Those small fish it follow through will die very fast too, Yesterday gamuda Wb up to 31 cent , today is 22 cent. If you win money congratulation ! If lost money that your fault. Don't blame market.!! High violation is not suitable for small investor.

Using buffet word. " Protect your capital rather than win the market". but i know when end of the bull run, many of us will burnt by warrant again!! God Bless You~

My first recommendation stock :Titan

Why Titan ? Since IPO the stock price always perform under IPO price, I remember is 1.7, yet today still hang 1.3 or 1.4. Market is concern the High gearing 1420 M as per latest annocement, also hike by high petrol price and impact the earning ability. Today oil price drop high and Titan margin are improving......

1. Earning for 3 quarter up to 30 cent per share or equivalent to 40 cent per annuam (PE around 4)
2. Demand of PP,PE constantly growing, this can be from their annual report. Margin improving as per latest Q3 annocement and the management are positive to Q4 performance
3. Market breaking 1000, is time to look for under value stock.
4. Only concern is the gearing level here. long term Debt about 1,400 m which will take few year to clear off. if assume current net profit can be maintain (600m per year) the ability to paid back is not in concern.
5. The company start paying dividend. even is 3 cent for interim is better than Megan given 0.
6. The share spreads only 27% to public, this is my concern. But any how I am happy my holding costs is around 1.25 to 1.30
7. With oil price droping to 57, I believe coming Quarter, Titan will given suprise result.

Bursa break 1000:Dream or true

Today, Bursa officially beak 1000, close at 1003, Do you win any money ? if yes congratulation!! I believe if you are in market more than 10 year. Your won't be happy. Most of us lossing like hell. Many stock forum active , then die , why market really bad.

Execept plantation and some blue chip. Ask your self? Market really up? Can I recover money I lost in 2000 bull or far 1997 Crisis or even far 1994 super bull. Our neigbour like Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. All break history high, they are rank superbull now. Where is 1,300 for index. How is our 2nd board and mesdaq? 2nd board still below 90 (lower than crisis). Mesdaq 186 since 2002. then now??? where small investor like us shall go to complaint!! I remember I buy few lot of Cosco (Singapore stock exchange ) few year back,. now my return is 1000%. So what is suprise our IoI 300% for this few year.

Hope market will up trend a while, Broker film will full of people, and every one is buying... that is the time i leave Bursa and only concentrate on Blue chip on bursa.


Hope the day will come soon.

Mieco Chiboard: my 2nd hopeless stocks lists

Why mieco, Still remember back 2 to 3 year ago, S&P , and also some stocks forum, analyser, all call for buy mieco. I remeber the S&P put it rating RM4.7 per share. From that day every one are buying. The higher shall be at 2.70 or 3.00. Today Mieco is at hang around 1.00. What happen to this counter.

Prior to investment in 2nd plant. The plant 1 is fully operate and achieve as high of 30 m profit for 2004. The management put high inbition to build a plant B is much more big capacity for plant A. The plant B will iddle from them. The over supply of capacity (everyone increased capacity during same time , especially Thailand). In additional problem of sourcing raw material in plant B too, force the company paying higher material price or importing. All those factors make the company turn to red after the commisison of plant B in 2005. It show a positive result in 2006-Q1 but is due to change in accounting policy of depreciation.

I am doubt the management decision making of build in plant B. Who suppose responsible for this fail investment? Shareholder like us. Whether those any back-up emergency plan if the thing go wrong. With big loan due from 2006 to 2009, equivalent to 175 M (not yet include interest 5%) Does the company ability to pay off the debt. when i review their financial report on 2005 Cashflow their ability to earn cashflow to settle the debt for 3 year only 120 m. How is the negetive 55 m been paid off.

There are few possiblity that i can think off


1. Increase short term borrowing, There already make use of it at 2006-Q1amounting to 40 m , turover is 150 m for each quarter,
maximum loading is about 100 m , this is temperary and last resource.
2. Right issued, 4 issued 1 or 3 issued 1, but this option can't work due to holding company
Bandaraya. Cash in hand only 18 M and it need 31 m to pay off the right issued since he holding 56% (as at 30.06.06)
3. Private placement, this is possible option, this option also not favaour to small shareholder.
4. Restructure the debt or capital repayment, this is unfavour option to the small shareholder too.


Any how, for small investor like us (including bandaraya shareholders) We are paying for the mistake of management will make.
The reason I learn here also include in my lists of reason why I fail in investment. Sad to said off